Experiment
Consequence Preview
Help people understand likely consequences, obligations and uncertainty before they commit.
01
Problem to address
People often discover important obligations, costs, conflicts or risks after they have already committed. The expensive failure is not lack of prediction but lack of usable foresight at the decision point.
02
What the evidence tells us
Farmers want to know eligibility before applying, and fear later penalties. They also need to understand whether something will work on their land and what it will cost over time. The real ask is to see the consequence before committing.
03
The proposition to explore
The idea
Show people the important known consequences, obligations and uncertainties of a choice before they commit to it.
04
Hypothesis
If users can see the important known consequences and uncertainties before committing, they will make better-informed choices and fewer cases will fail later because obligations were misunderstood.
05
How it could work
At a consequential choice, assemble current rules, known interactions, time commitments, evidence requirements and relevant uncertainty into a plain-language preview. Where possible, let users compare alternatives side by side.
06
Example: bring it to life
Before selecting a farming intervention, the farmer sees expected payment, length of commitment, evidence they will need, interaction with existing agreements, known maintenance obligations and how strong the suitability evidence is for their land.
07
AI opportunity
AI can explain complex rules and scenario differences in plain language. It should not imply certainty where outcomes depend on future events.
08
Potential value
- Fewer avoidable surprises
- Better-informed participation
- Potentially higher trust
- Reduced downstream support and disputes
09
Reduce uncertainty without overcommitting
Smallest meaningful experiment
Prototype consequence preview for one high-friction choice using current rules only. Test whether users identify obligations more accurately and feel more confident than with existing guidance.
10
Open questions and risks
What we still need to learn
- Must distinguish known rules from uncertain outcomes
- Too much information can overwhelm
- Could be interpreted as a guarantee